By Sean Tucker
These are the vehicles most and least likely to result in driver deaths, according to insurance industry data.
The car insurance industry's premier safety agency has released a treasure trove of data about car crashes. But spotting trends in the data isn't easy.
Roughly speaking, it confirms some common sense. Small cars, with their light weights, don't fare well in accidents. Muscle cars give some drivers more power than they can handle. And luxury vehicles, with their high-tech safety features, tend to protect their drivers better than affordable cars.
But even those trends aren't 100% reliable.
Crash tests are imperfect
Car safety is much more complex than it seems. Safety agencies do their best to simplify it with awards and star ratings. But, as much as we'd love to list the safest cars, all available data has flaws.
Crash tests, for instance, don't resemble real-world crashes. A frontal crash test -- when a safety lab slams a car into a barrier -- simulates a car crashing into a car of similar size and weight. They don't tell us how a subcompact SUV fares when a full-size truck slams into it.
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Side crash tests do tell us what happens when a truck slams into a vehicle's doors. One prominent safety lab now uses a sled that resembles a pickup for its side crash tests. But they can't vary the size and the height of it.
The conditions of a laboratory also can't mimic that horrible intersection on your way to work where everyone misunderstands the turn lanes. And crash tests don't have a car following too closely behind the car that crashes.
Real-world crash data can help plug some of the gaps. But it's chaotic because crashes are as much about driver safety as car safety.
Also see: 7 must-have safety features for your next car
The insurance industry's safety watchdog
America has two major safety agencies that crash test almost every car for sale. One is the federal government's National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA -- the one that awards the stars). It was not involved in this study.
The other is a safety lab funded by a consortium of insurance companies. Your insurance company has a financial interest in making accidents rare and mild. So a group of insurance companies works together to operate the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS), which conducts its own tests.
The IIHS also has access to data from most major insurers -- a rich source from which to study real-world accidents. That's the data fed into this study.
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About these numbers
The IIHS this week has released rankings of cars based on how often their drivers die in accidents and how often the driver in a car they hit dies.
The agency says the numbers "are a useful companion to the Institute's safety ratings, as they capture different aspects of risk." But no one figure can precisely tell you which cars are safest.
The IIHS has published figures on how often drivers die in each model every three years since 1989. This year, for the first time, the agency also considered how often the driver of the other vehicle in an accident dies.
This year's numbers apply to "fatalities that occurred from 2018 to 2021 for vehicles from the 2020 model year, as well as earlier models with the same designs and features." In some cases, they include 2017 model year cars "if the vehicles have not been substantially redesigned over the intervening period."
To control for the fact that some cars are more common than others, the Institute considered death rates by millions of registered vehicle years.
A few trends
IIHS researchers spot a few trends in the data.
"We typically find that smaller vehicles have high driver death rates because they don't provide as much protection, especially in crashes with larger, heavier SUVs and pickups," said IIHS President David Harkey.
For instance, drivers of the Mitsubishi Mirage proved more likely to die in an accident than drivers of any other car. The Mirage is one of America's least-expensive new cars. It's tiny -- a subcompact car available as a sedan or a hatchback. The 2020 version lacked advanced safety features like automatic emergency braking (though the Mirage on dealer lots today does have that technology).
But some heavy, powerful vehicles made the list of cars with the highest death rate, too. The IIHS notes, "Six of the 21 vehicles with the highest driver death rates for model year 2020 are variants of the Chevrolet Camaro, Dodge Challenger, Dodge Charger, and Ford (F) Mustang."
Muscle cars put a lot of power in drivers' hands for comparatively little money. "The muscle cars on this list highlight that a vehicle's image and how it is marketed can also contribute to crash risk," Harkey says.
Luxury cars, meanwhile, tend to protect their occupants better. "The models that rank among the best and worst performers on both lists point to the unfortunate fact that vehicle cost remains a factor in road safety," Harkey said.
See: The safest new cars of 2023
How to use the data
Overall, the agency says, America's roads are growing more dangerous. In its 2017 study, the IIHS found an average of 36 deaths per million registered vehicle years. In 2020, the number rose to 38.
That comes despite high-tech safety features like automatic emergency braking growing more common.
So how do you protect yourself?
Size appears to be part of the answer. Subcompact cars, the IIHS says, "had the highest driver death rates, averaging 153 deaths per million registered vehicle years. Very large luxury cars had the lowest, averaging only four deaths."
But size alone isn't the answer. It might also benefit you to avoid pickup trucks unless you need one. Six of the 10 vehicles most likely to kill the other driver were trucks. Only one truck -- the GMC Canyon Crew Cab -- appears on the list of cars with the lowest driver death rate.
This may have to do with how pickups are built. The ladder frames of most modern pickups allow them to flex to keep a wheel in contact with the ground on rough terrain. But they don't hold up as well in crashes as the unibody design of most SUVs.
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And, sadly, spending more can protect you. "Crash avoidance systems and other advanced safety features are most often standard equipment on luxury vehicles," the IIHS notes.
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Notably, the data found zero deaths in four vehicles. Only one -- the Nissan Pathfinder (7201.TO) -- is available for under $40,000 today.
2017-2021 cars with the highest driver death rate
Rank Model Driver Deaths per MillionRegistered Vehicle Years 1 Mitsubishi Mirage Sedan 205 2 Mitsubishi Mirage Hatchback 183 3 Dodge Challenger 154 4 Hyundai Accent 152 5 Chevrolet Spark 151 6 Kia KR:000270 Rio Sedan 122 7 Dodge Charger 118 8 (tie) Chevrolet Camaro Convertible 113 8 (tie) Nissan Altima 113 10 Kia Forte 111
2017-2021 cars with the lowest driver death rate
Rank Model Driver Deaths per Million Registered Vehicle Years 1 (tie) BMW X3 XE:BMW 0 1 (tie) Lexus ES 0 1 (tie) Mercedes-Benz E-Class Sedan 0 1 (tie) Nissan Pathfinder 0 5 (tie) Audi Q5 2 5 (tie) Toyota C-HR TM 2 7 (tie) Nissan Murano 4 7(tie) Volvo XC90 VLVLY 4 9 (tie) GMC Canyon Crew Cab 5 9 (tie) Lexus RX 5 9 (tie) Subaru Outback FUJHY 5 9 (tie) Toyota Sienna 5 9 (tie) Volvo XC60 5 10 (tie) Acura MDX 6 10 (tie) Acura RDX 6 10 (tie) BMW X5 6 10 (tie) Chevrolet Traverse 6 10 (tie) Ford Edge 6 10 (tie) Honda Odyssey HMC 6 10 (tie) Lexus NX 6 10 (tie) Porsche Macan POAHY 6 10 (tie) Subaru Ascent 6 10 (tie) Toyota Tacoma Double Cab Long Bed 6
2017-2021 cars with the highest other driver death rate
Rank Model Other Driver* Deaths per Million Registered Vehicle Years 1 Ram 3500 Crew Cab Long Bed 189 2 Dodge Charger 164 3 Ford F-350 Crew Cab 147 4 Ram 2500 Mega Cab 154 5 Kia Optima 134 6 Kia Rio 133 7 Ram 2500 Crew Cab Short Bed 122 8 Ford F-250 Crew Cab 120 9 Dodge Charger 105 10 Ram 1500 Crew Cab Short Bed 104
(*Vehicles most likely to be involved in fatal accidents in which the driver of the other vehicle died.)
2017-2021 cars with the lowest other driver death rate
Rank Model Other Driver Deaths per Million Registered Vehicle Years 1 Buick Encore 6 2 Mercedes-Benz E-Class Sedan 10 3 Acura MDX 14 4 (tie) Subaru Ascent 16 4 (tie) Toyota RAV4 16 4 (tie) Volvo XC60 16 7 Porsche Macan 18 8 (tie) Chevrolet Bolt EV 19 8 (tie) Chevrolet Trax 19 8 (tie) Honda HR-V 19 8 (tie) Lexus NX 300 19 8 (tie) Toyota C-HR 19 8 (tie) Volkswagen Atlas VWAGY 19
KBB's car review methodology.
This story originally ran on KBB.com.
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